Does anyone have any insight into projecting the future velocity of a boy who is physically immature?
My son is 5'11", 140 lbs and throws 78 mph. He is still quite immature physically. Based on Dr.'s opinion, growth charts, and comparisons with family members, he is expected to reach 6'2"-6'3" in 3 years. Mature weight won't be reached for some years after that, but 185-190 lbs. is likely. Any way to project future velocity from physical characteristics?
“Does anyone have any insight into projecting the future velocity of a boy who is physically immature?”
Future velocity can not be calculated! Velocity does not correlate with height, weight or chronological age groupings. When you see studies done with these parameters you know they are bogus!!!
Highest velocity performers are genetically gifted with higher percentages of fast twitch (type2) muscle fibers than slow twitch (type1) ones.
The fastest pitcher who ever lived was 5’10” tall (Steve Dalkowski) but still attained mid hundreds and higher.
“My son is 5'11", 140 lbs and throws 78 mph. He is still quite immature physically.”
Does this mean he is an early, late or an equated biological maturer? Fitness has nothing to do with this evaluation but counts in the velocity potential.
“Based on Dr.'s opinion, growth charts, and comparisons with family members, he is expected to reach 6'2"-6'3" in 3 years. Mature weight won't be reached for some years after that, but 185-190 lbs. is likely.
None of these factors matter!!!
These are just subjective and anecdotal ways that people and coaches use non-scientific parameters that lead them to believe the bigger and taller they are the better for projecting everything from durability, fatigue and velocity but really have nothing to do with it.
“Any way to project future velocity from physical characteristics?”
No, not slow velocity or high!
The only way you can know is with many invasive biopsies on your child to determine his muscle type percentages.
I don’t think knowing the truth is necessary, it might dissuade him from continuing to pitch at lower velocities that he would have maybe been successful still if he learned how to sequence batters with a good number of pitch types.
Sorry about the truth factor but these physiological things are all ready known and proven and should be known for the way they actually work.
I happen to wholeheartedly agree! But nonetheless, size at the younger ages, and the numbers on a gun added to size at the later ages are just about the only things that lead to opportunities. And even if the opportunity is available, a smaller or lower velocity pitcher is at a distinct disadvantage, warranted or not.
It’s a shame that size is equated(without proof) to velocity, and even more of a shame that velocity is equated(without proof) to winning. Both things come under the heading of CYA for the scouts or coaches who are tasked with projecting a player. What I mean by that is, if a large pitcher is given opportunities, at least the cover of “He’s a big guy and should be able to learn how to throw hard”, is there in case that pitcher doesn’t pan out. And in the case of older players, those coveted numbers on a gun provide even better cover.
The number of potentially great pitchers is much reduced because of a fear that the person giving the opportunity will lose credibility and perhaps even his job. But the real shame is, no one will ever know because there are always more pitchers in the pipeline who have size and gun numbers.
Post by jpsbiomech on Dec 11, 2012 10:17:29 GMT -6
There are many factors to consider when trying to project the physical development of an individual adolescent athlete. As dirtberry stated, muscle fiber type is one factor. Others include, but are not limited to, things like genetics, proper pitching mechanics, exercise and physical activity, pitching volume and nutrition.
Generally, adolescent pitchers will add a few miles per hour to their fastball for each year of development. However, this progression will vary from pitcher to pitcher and might not follow a linear path.
Your son should focus on maintaining efficient pitching mechanics and avoiding overuse, which will reduce the strain on his body and chance of injury, to allow him to reach his maximum potential.
Post by jpsbiomech on Dec 13, 2012 16:16:02 GMT -6
songtitle; It is IMPOSSIBLE to determine the future velocity of an individual player based solely on muscle fiber type. There are simply too many factors to consider when attempting to project future velocity. Any unnecessary muscle biopsy test is strongly discouraged.
If you want a comprehensive evaluation of your son's pitching mechanics, you can visit Dr. Glen Fleisig and the research team at ASMI. We analyze the chain of movements that combine to form the pitching motion and provide expert assessments to maximize performance and reduce strain on the body.
Daque; Dalkowski was rumored to have thrown between 100-110 mph regularly. Unfortunately, the ONLY substantiated velocity was 93.5 mph at Aberdeen. There were several limiting factors that day; he had to throw off of flat ground, he had pitched the night before, he couldn't throw the pitch in the correct location to be measured for 40 minutes, etc. All of this information is covered in a book titled "High Heat: The Secret History of the Fastball and the Improbable Search for the Fastest Pitcher of All Time" by Tim Wendel. Read pages 173-182 for an in depth look at how a pitch is analyzed by ASMI and Dr. Fleisig.
Generally speaking pitchers in their teens pick up about 2 to 3 mph per year up to around age 18 or 19. It can vary a lot depending on maturity, genetic limit, etc. but 2 to 3 mph is fairly normal. Velocity has been shown to correlate with height and weight. Just like most anything else having to do with people there are significant exceptions, e.g. Lincecum.
How old is he now?
Last Edit: Jan 3, 2013 11:59:33 GMT -6 by miketace
… Velocity has been shown to correlate with height and weight….
I don’t doubt for a second that’s true, given the available sample. Unfortunately though, not every player of every height and weight is tested. And even though it may be true, it still doesn’t prove velocity alone makes better pitchers.
"it still doesn’t prove velocity alone makes better pitchers."
Brings to mind a man child pitcher I had. Just for nutss and giggles. when warming up he would throw a great fast ball right by the catcher and it would shake the back stop. Got the attention of the opposing team who refused to dig in.