Post by curiousandrew on Sept 6, 2015 18:29:27 GMT -6
With the Matt Harvey, Scott Boras, Mets, etc story going through the news recently, I've been trying to find information regarding innings limits, pitch limits, etc for players returning from injury. I haven't been able to find much other than a few articles (some very well written and interesting) a statement from Scott Boras alluding to a "recent study", but ultimately nothing that feels in any way persuasive or satisfying.
Has there been satisfactory research into this area? I am getting the impression that everyone is referring to very preliminary work. Scott Boras referred to the success rates of four individual players, and even then I feel his reasons for including and excluding specific players to be largely arbitrary. For instance, I know Matt Harvey threw a great deal last season. He didnt pitch in games, but he was working most of the summer on building arm strength and whatnot. Why should we consider that as being, using his term, "zero"? Why should a player who has thrown 200 innings once, followed by tearing a ucl be treated differently than a guy who throws 190 innings prior to surgery? That seems arbitrary. What about side work, bullpen work, amount of time to get ready for a game, number of outches thrown under duress, etc? Shouldn't those count? What if a guy uses 2500 pitches to get 200 innings and the other guy uses 2900 to get 185? Is the 185 really less work? Should they really be using different regimens to recover?
None of this is making sense to me, and I am curious if there is actual research backing up the assertions being made.
Post by curiousandrew on Sept 8, 2015 19:19:38 GMT -6
I don't mean to ask about the situation itself or the specifics of his case. I just want to have a better understanding of the arguments being used, and I am wondering if there are any published articles or studies out there. I have access to a university library, so I hope I could get my hands on anything that way, I am curious if there is any reading you could recommend.
Post by Glenn Fleisig, Ph.D. on Sept 9, 2015 12:51:21 GMT -6
Here's what has been published in scientific journals: 1. Factors that increase the chance of initial injury. A good summary is here: m.mlb.com/pitchsmart/risk-factors/ 2. Chance of return and performance statistics after first Tommy John surgery. 3. Chance of return and performance statistics after second Tommy John surgery. 4. How many pro pitchers have had Tommy John surgery.
Here's what has not been published in scientific journals (at least, not to my knowledge) 5. Factors that increase the chance of second Tommy John injury.
Unfortunately, Question #5 is the Question of the Day. Send me an email firstname.lastname@example.org if you want to see some of the articles to particular Questions, #1-4.